Ukrainian officials have been silent on the operation publicly, declining to confirm Ukraine’s involvement as in previous incursions while they were ongoing.
Multiple theories have appeared for Ukraine’s possible goal with the offensive, with most analysts suggesting it could be an attempt to force Russia to divert forces away from elsewhere in Ukraine at a time when Ukrainian forces are under intense pressure in parts of the Donbas region. Some Ukrainian analysts have also indicated it could be an attempt to pre-empt a planned Russian offensive into the neighboring Ukrainian region of Sumy.
Some have also speculated Ukraine could be seeking to seize territory to give it leverage in potential peace negotiations to trade for Ukrainian occupied territory. Russian military bloggers have expressed alarm that Ukraine could even be seeking to seize the Kursk Nuclear Power Station that lies about 35 miles from the border. That appears unrealistic for such a small force to capture, although Russia’s National Guard on Wednesday announced it was reinforcing security at the plant.
Others have speculated Ukraine could be attempting to capture or damage the Sudzha gas pipeline hub, to disrupt Russian supplies to Europe.
Some Ukrainian and independent military analysts have questioned the wisdom of such a risky operation at a time when Ukraine is suffering from intense troop shortages and Russian forces have been advancing towards the key strategic city of Pokrovsk in Donbas.
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