Historian Allan Lichtman predicts who will win US election (Page 3 ) | September 6, 2024

Annonce:

Mr. Lichtman, who calls his model “The Keys to the White House,” claims to have correctly forecast the winner of all but one election since 1984. The odd one out was George W. Bush’s razor-thin victory over Al Gore in 2000.

We can also plonk an asterisk next to the result in 2016. While Mr. Lichtman correctly picked Mr. Trump to defeat Hillary Clinton, at the time he was saying his model predicted the winner of the popular vote, not the outcome in the electoral college. Mr. Trump became president even though he received about three million fewer votes than Ms. Clinton.

So look, it’s a predictive model, and whether through genuine insight or lucky coincidence, it’s usually been right in the past. Take it with some generous lumps of salt.

This time, Mr. Lichtman says, Ms. Harris should win.