Allan Lichtman has revealed his model’s prediction in a rather eccentric video for The New York Times.
The model involves a list of 13 factors – those titular “keys” – which Mr. Lichtman believes add up to determine the outcome of an election. It ignores polling and considers the events of the election campaign to be essentially irrelevant.
Hence Mr. Lichtman’s previous prediction, before President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, that he would have won re-election, despite his abysmal polling and disastrous performance in June’s televised debate against Mr. Trump. The model doesn’t take those things into account.
Mr. Lichtman’s view is that voters tend to choose the president based on how well, or poorly, the country has been governed during the preceding term. If they’re broadly satisfied with the incumbent, the party in power will hold the White House.
