Silver’s update followed a Sunday New York Times/Siena College poll, which showed Trump ahead of Harris nationally by 1 point in a direct comparison and 2 points when including third-party candidates, undermining any post-Democratic National Convention bump for Harris.
“This is one of our highest-rated pollsters, so it has a fair amount of influence on the numbers, reducing Harris’ lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points, which would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College,” Silver wrote on his Silver Bulletin blog before his Monday update.
“Our model is more bearish on Harris still because of its convention bounce adjustment and its assessment of economic ‘fundamentals.'”
Silver’s modeling to project the Electoral College winner involves more than a simple comparison of numbers, incorporating data points beyond polling.
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