“You’re welcome to debate the mechanics of the adjustment, but recent polls confirm its basic hypothesis that there’s been a shift in momentum against Harris,” Silver added.
Tuesday’s debate could potentially reshape or even define the race, Silver noted in his analysis.
“The good news for Harris is that there’s a debate on Tuesday, and if she turns in a strong performance, nobody is going to care so much about the Times poll,” he wrote.
Other data models suggest a more competitive race than Silver’s projection. RealClearPolitics gives Harris 273 electoral votes, while Project 538 projects Harris with 281 electoral votes to Trump’s 257.
Silver does predict a slim edge for Harris in the popular vote, giving her a 56% chance of winning more votes compared to Trump’s 44%. However, the Electoral College tally, focused on the seven battleground states, will ultimately determine the next president.
The key swing states for this election cycle are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
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